OK: It's been a crazy couple of days, and a crazier caucus season. Now that they are all inside, and in 15 minutes the doors will be locked and no one will be allowed out until they have a decision, it is time for some random predictions:
Democrats: I hope I'm wrong, but I am predicting a Clinton victory, on the strength of her organization on the ground. Obama's only chance is a rediculously high voter turnout and a lot of luck. I think Edwards will come in third.
Republicans: Again, not quite sure where to go with this one. I'm going to say that Huckabee will pull it off, despite himself. Again, not sure on this and caucus rules favor the frontrunner much more on the GOP side than on the Democratic side. My shocking pick of the night though: I think you will see Ron Paul poll higher than expected, maybe as high as 10%. The big questions left are whether Thompson or McCain will come in third. I think it will be Thompson, but watch out if it is McCain. The other big question is whether Guiliani will place last (I think he will), and if it will hurt him (I think it will again).
There you have it. Now let's sit back and enjoy seeing me gloat or hang my head in shame in a few hours.
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my dear, i'm insulted by the insinuation that the only candidate with a community organizing background would have a weaker on-the-ground organization in a state that is entirely about on-the-ground organization. okay, not really insulted. but so you could write a special on the strength of the community organizing for the campaign after the primary is over, i know of another early state that would love to have the extra help if you so felt like coming down and volunteering... :) also i just selfishly want to see you guys.
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